Half of US Home Prices Are at All-Time Highs. Half Are Underwater Since 2022

Half of the country had a real housing recession that the national index hid. One variable explains why.

May 6 • EPB Research

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April 2026

The Housing Recession That Never Came — And The One That's Quietly Underway

In 2022, months supply hit a level not seen since 2008, but a housing recession never came. This metric explains why.

Apr 30 • EPB Research

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The Economy Has 158 Million Jobs. Less Than 15% Matter For Recessions.

Most analysts watch total nonfarm payrolls and see stability. A narrow slice of the labor market generates virtually every recessionary job loss — and…

Apr 23 • EPB Research

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The Residential Housing Sequence

The residential construction cycle moves in the same order every time. By the time prices fall, the sequence has been running for years. This is the…

Apr 14 • EPB Research

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March 2026

The Consumer Is 70% of GDP. Less Than 20% of It Matters.

Most analysts watch total consumer spending and see stability. Break it down by cyclicality and the picture looks completely different.

Mar 31 • EPB Research

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How Vulnerable Is the US Economy to a Geopolitical Shock?

The US-Iran conflict has reignited recession fears. Here's what the data from five decades of geopolitical shocks actually shows about when or how these…

Mar 16 • EPB Research

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Why Your Income Isn’t Growing (Video)

The Hidden Link Between Government Size, Vanishing Net Investment, and Stagnant Real Incomes

Mar 4 • EPB Research

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February 2026

AI Investment Is Masking a Weaker Economy

Strip out AI investment and the case for rate cuts becomes difficult to ignore. Key cyclical sectors are still struggling.

Feb 27 • EPB Research

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Why The Leading Indicators Failed? (Video)

Leading indicators declined for three years with no recession - here is what actually happened.

Feb 19 • EPB Research

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These Are The Best (And Worst) Leading Indicators

Not all economic indicators are created equal. Here are the best (and worst) for recession forecasting.

Feb 17 • EPB Research

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January 2026

Why Leading Indicators Failed This Cycle (Or Did They?)

Leading indicators declined for three years with no recession - here is what actually happened.

Jan 28 • EPB Research

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Where U.S. Growth Went

The Hidden Link Between Government Size, Vanishing Net Investment, and Stagnant Real Incomes

Jan 20 • EPB Research

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