Every Economic Number Is Either Early or Late. Most of the Famous Ones Are Late.

The three biggest numbers in economics share a hidden flaw: they can only confirm what already happened. Here’s the small, specific part of the economy…

Jul 14 • Eric Basmajian

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Build Less, Pay More: What Happened to American Housing

Housing is the best example of a deeper shift: America has stopped funding its own investment, and stopped building the physical structures most people…

Jul 1 • Eric Basmajian

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June 2026

The Stock Market Is Not a Leading Indicator. This Is.

The market is better at calling the end of a recession than the beginning. Here's the part of the economy that actually leads the cycle, and how to…

Jun 23 • Eric Basmajian

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How to Read the GDP Report in 4 Steps

Most of GDP can't tell you where the cycle is going. Here's the part that can.

Jun 10 • Eric Basmajian

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Record Profits, Falling Paychecks

US corporate margins just hit an all-time high while the typical worker's income slips below trend. The two are connected, and the reason isn't what…

Jun 1 • Eric Basmajian

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May 2026

The Iran War Just Derailed the Housing Recovery

Housing was stabilizing for the first time in three years. Then the war reignited inflation and pulled the one variable holding the recovery together…

May 21 • Eric Basmajian

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Half of US Home Prices Are at All-Time Highs. Half Are Underwater Since 2022

Half of the country had a real housing recession that the national index hid. One variable explains why.

May 6 • Eric Basmajian

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April 2026

The Housing Recession That Never Came — And The One That's Quietly Underway

In 2022, months supply hit a level not seen since 2008, but a housing recession never came. This metric explains why.

Apr 30 • Eric Basmajian

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The Economy Has 158 Million Jobs. Less Than 15% Matter For Recessions.

Most analysts watch total nonfarm payrolls and see stability. A narrow slice of the labor market generates virtually every recessionary job loss — and…

Apr 23 • Eric Basmajian

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The Residential Housing Sequence

The residential construction cycle moves in the same order every time. By the time prices fall, the sequence has been running for years. This is the…

Apr 14 • Eric Basmajian

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March 2026

The Consumer Is 70% of GDP. Less Than 20% of It Matters.

Most analysts watch total consumer spending and see stability. Break it down by cyclicality and the picture looks completely different.

Mar 31 • Eric Basmajian

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How Vulnerable Is the US Economy to a Geopolitical Shock?

The US-Iran conflict has reignited recession fears. Here's what the data from five decades of geopolitical shocks actually shows about when or how these…

Mar 16 • Eric Basmajian

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