Where The Labor Market Stands Today

Analyzing the health of the labor market and the biggest risks for 2026.

Jan 13 • EPB Research

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Treading Water

Net private investment has fallen from over 8% to under 4% of GDP over the past several decades. The economy is increasingly just replacing worn-out…

Jan 6 • EPB Research

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December 2025

4.3% GDP Growth. Was It Actually Good News?

Why headline GDP growth masks a deeply bifurcated economy - and what it means for economic momentum/monetary policy in 2026.

Dec 26, 2025 • EPB Research

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2001 Recession: The Warning Signs Hiding in Plain Sight

Business equipment investment started to collapse in 2000 while GDP growth looked fine. Here's why tracking cyclical sectors always beats watching…

Dec 19, 2025 • EPB Research

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You Could Have Seen 2008 Coming. Here's Exactly How.

The three charts that signaled the recession 18 months early.

Dec 10, 2025 • EPB Research

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The 20% of the Economy That Drives 100% of Recessions

Why conventional analysis fails — and the three sectors you should actually be watching.

Dec 3, 2025 • EPB Research

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November 2025

How to Read the Jobs Report: A Data-Driven Approach

A systematic approach for analyzing labor data within the full Business Cycle Sequence.

Nov 25, 2025 • EPB Research

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September 2025

Why Companies Haven't Cut Jobs (Yet)...

Elevated profit margins are giving businesses more room and time to absorb slowing economic conditions without resorting to wide-scale layoffs. But the…

Sep 7, 2025 • EPB Research

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August 2025

The Residential Housing Cycle Has Turned

A detailed trip through the sequence of the residential housing cycle: from monetary policy to home prices.

Aug 23, 2025 • EPB Research

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July 2025

The Role of Consumer Spending in the Business Cycle: Confirmation, Not Prediction

A breakdown of how personal consumption fits into the business cycle sequence and the EPB Four Economy Framework

Jul 29, 2025 • EPB Research

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Real Money Supply Is Still Contracting — And Housing Is the Next Domino

Despite a continued decline in real money, the excess from past stimulus is still buffering the economy, but continued contraction will push tightening…

Jul 19, 2025 • EPB Research

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Crowding Out The Private Sector

Unchecked government spending growth is smothering the private sector, eroding productivity and blurring the economic picture for policymakers.

Jul 10, 2025 • EPB Research

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