The 20% of the Economy That Drives 100% of Recessions

Why conventional analysis fails — and the three sectors you should actually be watching.

Dec 3 • 

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November 2025

How to Read the Jobs Report: A Data-Driven Approach

A systematic approach for analyzing labor data within the full Business Cycle Sequence.

Nov 25 • 

EPB Research

43

2

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September 2025

Why Companies Haven't Cut Jobs (Yet)...

Elevated profit margins are giving businesses more room and time to absorb slowing economic conditions without resorting to wide-scale layoffs. But the…

Sep 7 • 

EPB Research

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August 2025

The Residential Housing Cycle Has Turned

A detailed trip through the sequence of the residential housing cycle: from monetary policy to home prices.

Aug 23 • 

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July 2025

The Role of Consumer Spending in the Business Cycle: Confirmation, Not Prediction

A breakdown of how personal consumption fits into the business cycle sequence and the EPB Four Economy Framework

Jul 29 • 

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Real Money Supply Is Still Contracting — And Housing Is the Next Domino

Despite a continued decline in real money, the excess from past stimulus is still buffering the economy, but continued contraction will push tightening…

Jul 19 • 

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Crowding Out The Private Sector

Unchecked government spending growth is smothering the private sector, eroding productivity and blurring the economic picture for policymakers.

Jul 10 • 

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June 2025

Where Does the US Economy Stand Today?

A data-driven analysis cutting through the noise to reveal the current state of the Aggregate Economy.

Jun 21 • 

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Cracks Are Spreading in the US Labor Market

A closer look at the labor market reveals weakening demand, falling job quality, and signs of cyclical deterioration.

Jun 14 • 

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May 2025

The U.S. Housing Market Is Balanced — But Not Everywhere

National statistics show a housing market in perfect balance, but extreme regional differences exist between states with high volumes of new…

May 27 • 

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5

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The (Cyclical) Economy Leads Earnings

Stock prices are no longer a leading indicator. This post provides empirical evidence behind how the Cyclical Economy leads company earnings which leads…

May 14 • 

EPB Research

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April 2025

How to Improve Building Permits as a Leading Indicator

Learn how a sequential Business Cycle process can turn building permits into one of the most reliable early warning signals for the economy.

Apr 22 • 

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