EPB Research
The Four Economy Framework. Applied to current data every week.
Most economic research tells you what already happened. By the time a slowdown reaches GDP or the jobs report, the cycle has been turning for a year or more.
EPB Research is built on a different premise: the economy moves through the same sequence in every cycle.
Read the sequence in order, and you see turning points well before the headlines confirm them.
How EPB Research Works
Every week, a new post applies the framework to current data.
Some weeks, it’s the leading indicators. Some weeks, it’s housing or manufacturing. Some weeks, it’s profit margins or monetary policy.
The framework doesn’t change. The data does.
A Bit About Me
I’m Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Research, an independent economic research firm focused on the business cycle.
My work is used by institutional investors and by the manufacturers, real estate developers, and corporate management teams whose businesses turn with the economy.
Behind it is a serious body of research: hundreds of indicators tested against the historical record, in the tradition of leading-indicator economists like Geoffrey Moore and Victor Zarnowitz.
This research is built to be trusted across a full cycle rather than a single good quarter.
EPB Research is read by 250,000+ people across platforms, with 9,000,000+ views on YouTube, and used by manufacturers, construction companies, pension funds, and hedge funds globally.
Start Here
If you’re new to EPB Research, start with our free GDP guide.
Most people watch headline GDP, the jobs report, and consumer spending to read the economy. All three confirm the cycle long after it’s turned.
A small slice of the economy drives almost all of its swings.
This free PDF guide on GDP breaks down which narrow slice of the economy you should watch, and why the headlines are always late.
