Elevated profit margins are giving businesses more room and time to absorb slowing economic conditions without resorting to wide-scale layoffs. But the labor market cracks are widening.
Great work as always. I guess my question is when was the last time that we saw a 40% increase in the money supply over 26 months, an additional 190 billion in liquidity from the BTFP, funding the debt with bills and running this much of a deficit during an upturn?
Perhaps I am myopic and setting aside the political motivations, for me the elephant in the room remains liquidity.
As always a very interesting post. A few years ago i found a paper on the difference in profit margins for multinationals (growth) and smb's (decline). If i recall correctly (i can't find the paper as the onlne depository & startup shut down) multinationals grew their (pre covid) margins by at least 50%) whiles smb profits halved.
Maybe someone here has some accurate povs on that?
What do you think of Matt Klein’s assessment of the labor market at the following link? He says the labor market can basically be assessed or defined or analyzed by the 25 to 54 year-old contingent, which seems to be doing well.
Great work as always. I guess my question is when was the last time that we saw a 40% increase in the money supply over 26 months, an additional 190 billion in liquidity from the BTFP, funding the debt with bills and running this much of a deficit during an upturn?
Perhaps I am myopic and setting aside the political motivations, for me the elephant in the room remains liquidity.
And I think that's done.
We'll see.
Great work!
As always a very interesting post. A few years ago i found a paper on the difference in profit margins for multinationals (growth) and smb's (decline). If i recall correctly (i can't find the paper as the onlne depository & startup shut down) multinationals grew their (pre covid) margins by at least 50%) whiles smb profits halved.
Maybe someone here has some accurate povs on that?
What do you think of Matt Klein’s assessment of the labor market at the following link? He says the labor market can basically be assessed or defined or analyzed by the 25 to 54 year-old contingent, which seems to be doing well.
https://open.substack.com/pub/matthewcklein/p/us-job-market-still-surprisingly?r=1iktu2&utm_medium=ios
Perhaps his analysis could be used as a subset under your analysis of the residential and industrial sectors?