This still misses the bigger catastrophe: $1.7 trillion student loan debt, $1.2 trillion consumer credit card debt, $200 billion medical debt, $200 billion auto loan debt, $13.8 trillion housing market debt, 60% of population $1,000 away from catastrophe, 34% of the population under official poverty line. Real poverty rate considerably higher. All debt markets already seeing mass defaults. Graduate unemployment rate is increasing. Entry-level jobs cratering. Since bankruptcy protection was removed from student loans, student fees have gone up 1,500 percent. All unemployment rates increasing. This is the most indebted population in world history, in an 80% service economy, with the stock market of 1929, the housing market of 2007 & the tech bubble of 1999. GDP meaaures debt moving around and calls it growth. We're speeding toward the Titanic and no one is measuring the iceberg.
The Cyclical GDP framing works with that "consumer is doing fine" paradox. Recessions are hard to predict, even if they're already happening. I don't think we're in one, btw.
The consumption contraction is allways the result of fear of unemployment. Of course is the last component, while in my view it matters a lot to determine length and depth.
This still misses the bigger catastrophe: $1.7 trillion student loan debt, $1.2 trillion consumer credit card debt, $200 billion medical debt, $200 billion auto loan debt, $13.8 trillion housing market debt, 60% of population $1,000 away from catastrophe, 34% of the population under official poverty line. Real poverty rate considerably higher. All debt markets already seeing mass defaults. Graduate unemployment rate is increasing. Entry-level jobs cratering. Since bankruptcy protection was removed from student loans, student fees have gone up 1,500 percent. All unemployment rates increasing. This is the most indebted population in world history, in an 80% service economy, with the stock market of 1929, the housing market of 2007 & the tech bubble of 1999. GDP meaaures debt moving around and calls it growth. We're speeding toward the Titanic and no one is measuring the iceberg.
The Cyclical GDP framing works with that "consumer is doing fine" paradox. Recessions are hard to predict, even if they're already happening. I don't think we're in one, btw.
Left off auto debt, state debt, state pension deficit AND, my favorite, buy now pay later debt. (Klarna. 11B market cap)
KLAR is $21.7 billion now.
Definitely a buy. Buy something with Klarna too. It’s just fun to do!
KLAR has been falling, though.
The consumption contraction is allways the result of fear of unemployment. Of course is the last component, while in my view it matters a lot to determine length and depth.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0014292115000628
Not 80%? Pareto is everywhere.