This still misses the bigger catastrophe: $1.7 trillion student loan debt, $1.2 trillion consumer credit card debt, $200 billion medical debt, $200 billion auto loan debt, $13.8 trillion housing market debt, 60% of population $1,000 away from catastrophe, 34% of the population under official poverty line. Real poverty rate considerably higher. All debt markets already seeing mass defaults. Graduate unemployment rate is increasing. Entry-level jobs cratering. Since bankruptcy protection was removed from student loans, student fees have gone up 1,500 percent. All unemployment rates increasing. This is the most indebted population in world history, in an 80% service economy, with the stock market of 1929, the housing market of 2007 & the tech bubble of 1999. GDP meaaures debt moving around and calls it growth. We're speeding toward the Titanic and no one is measuring the iceberg.
Spot on, James. That $1.7T student debt and the broader 'iceberg' of household leverage are exactly the kind of structural risks that aggregate GDP numbers mask. I've been tracking how this same 'debt-as-growth' paradox is creating even more volatile supply chain time bombs in the Global South & tbh would love your take on the latest piece I just put out on MarketMind.
The Cyclical GDP framing works with that "consumer is doing fine" paradox. Recessions are hard to predict, even if they're already happening. I don't think we're in one, btw.
The 'consumer is fine' paradox is the ultimate head-fake. The beauty of the Cyclical GDP framework is that it shows the cracks before they hit the mass market. I’m seeing a similar mispricing right now in how markets view pharma supply chains and political risks just dropped a deep dive on this over at MarketMind if you want to compare signals!
The consumption contraction is allways the result of fear of unemployment. Of course is the last component, while in my view it matters a lot to determine length and depth.
What’s the difference between residential investment & non-residential investment? Wouldn’t that essentially be 100% of ALL investments? I get the concept of this, and there are interesting takes. I’m not 100% on board everything because I believe there’s more to key drivers than simply durable goods consumption rates and investments. I think there are times this would drive economic activity and expansion, and other times there may be other key drivers, that you simply cannot distill economic expansionary drivers down to a simplistic list.
EPB nails the 20% cyclical signal, but the real mispricing happens when these global shifts collide with the supply chain 'time bombs' in the Global South & I'm tracking exactly how this plays out for my community at MarketMind.
This still misses the bigger catastrophe: $1.7 trillion student loan debt, $1.2 trillion consumer credit card debt, $200 billion medical debt, $200 billion auto loan debt, $13.8 trillion housing market debt, 60% of population $1,000 away from catastrophe, 34% of the population under official poverty line. Real poverty rate considerably higher. All debt markets already seeing mass defaults. Graduate unemployment rate is increasing. Entry-level jobs cratering. Since bankruptcy protection was removed from student loans, student fees have gone up 1,500 percent. All unemployment rates increasing. This is the most indebted population in world history, in an 80% service economy, with the stock market of 1929, the housing market of 2007 & the tech bubble of 1999. GDP meaaures debt moving around and calls it growth. We're speeding toward the Titanic and no one is measuring the iceberg.
Spot on, James. That $1.7T student debt and the broader 'iceberg' of household leverage are exactly the kind of structural risks that aggregate GDP numbers mask. I've been tracking how this same 'debt-as-growth' paradox is creating even more volatile supply chain time bombs in the Global South & tbh would love your take on the latest piece I just put out on MarketMind.
The Cyclical GDP framing works with that "consumer is doing fine" paradox. Recessions are hard to predict, even if they're already happening. I don't think we're in one, btw.
The 'consumer is fine' paradox is the ultimate head-fake. The beauty of the Cyclical GDP framework is that it shows the cracks before they hit the mass market. I’m seeing a similar mispricing right now in how markets view pharma supply chains and political risks just dropped a deep dive on this over at MarketMind if you want to compare signals!
KLAR is $21.7 billion now.
KLAR has been falling, though.
The consumption contraction is allways the result of fear of unemployment. Of course is the last component, while in my view it matters a lot to determine length and depth.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0014292115000628
What’s the difference between residential investment & non-residential investment? Wouldn’t that essentially be 100% of ALL investments? I get the concept of this, and there are interesting takes. I’m not 100% on board everything because I believe there’s more to key drivers than simply durable goods consumption rates and investments. I think there are times this would drive economic activity and expansion, and other times there may be other key drivers, that you simply cannot distill economic expansionary drivers down to a simplistic list.
EPB nails the 20% cyclical signal, but the real mispricing happens when these global shifts collide with the supply chain 'time bombs' in the Global South & I'm tracking exactly how this plays out for my community at MarketMind.
Not 80%? Pareto is everywhere.