The US-Iran conflict has reignited recession fears. Here's what the data from five decades of geopolitical shocks actually shows about when or how these events matter.
Hello EPB RESEARCH. I am a 77 year old, self-employed sociologist and serial entrepreneur who lives with his wife in Western Colorado. I am benefiting from your scholarship and forethought, because in Colorado, intellectually-curious people are a rarity. Thank you.
Cheers. Levelheaded as always. If only the ideologically 'pure' media would be as calm and collected. Over there, Russia's and China's economies are constantly about to crash, Trump is destroying the world, while our oceans are boiling.
In reality many wealthy western European nations not only have inadequate politicians, slowing economies, failing educational systems and decreasing productivity growth, before 2030 many will experience electricit- black outs and perhaps even rationing because of the EUs and UKs ridiculous energy 'transition'.
In the Netherlands we're already asked to run our washing machines etc at night because the grid is maxed out. New neighborhoods cannot be connected to the grid while businesses can't expand and are put on waiting lists for electricity.
Great piece, as always. I’d fully agree on the strength of current buffers if elevated margins and relatively low cyclical unemployment had developed organically but it seems to me they’ve been heavily supported by massive fiscal and monetary stimulus.
The US has effectively been building a house of cards on rising equity markets, both to (1) sustain consumer confidence and spending, and (2) justify corporate investment despite weak underlying profitability. In that context, I’m not convinced the real economy could absorb the shock of a prolonged bear market.
Strong framework. Especially the emphasis on margins as a shock absorber.
I’d add that the transmission mechanism matters just as much as the starting conditions.
Energy shocks don’t just compress margins. They also reshape liquidity flows (via rates, dollar strength, and credit conditions), which ultimately determines how quickly that pressure shows up in the real economy.
Hello EPB RESEARCH. I am a 77 year old, self-employed sociologist and serial entrepreneur who lives with his wife in Western Colorado. I am benefiting from your scholarship and forethought, because in Colorado, intellectually-curious people are a rarity. Thank you.
Cheers. Levelheaded as always. If only the ideologically 'pure' media would be as calm and collected. Over there, Russia's and China's economies are constantly about to crash, Trump is destroying the world, while our oceans are boiling.
In reality many wealthy western European nations not only have inadequate politicians, slowing economies, failing educational systems and decreasing productivity growth, before 2030 many will experience electricit- black outs and perhaps even rationing because of the EUs and UKs ridiculous energy 'transition'.
In the Netherlands we're already asked to run our washing machines etc at night because the grid is maxed out. New neighborhoods cannot be connected to the grid while businesses can't expand and are put on waiting lists for electricity.
Don’t be surprised if collective farming is next…
Well said.
Outstanding work Mr. Eric!!!! You definitely bring value to the conversation and discussion.
Great job
Great piece, as always. I’d fully agree on the strength of current buffers if elevated margins and relatively low cyclical unemployment had developed organically but it seems to me they’ve been heavily supported by massive fiscal and monetary stimulus.
The US has effectively been building a house of cards on rising equity markets, both to (1) sustain consumer confidence and spending, and (2) justify corporate investment despite weak underlying profitability. In that context, I’m not convinced the real economy could absorb the shock of a prolonged bear market.
Strong framework. Especially the emphasis on margins as a shock absorber.
I’d add that the transmission mechanism matters just as much as the starting conditions.
Energy shocks don’t just compress margins. They also reshape liquidity flows (via rates, dollar strength, and credit conditions), which ultimately determines how quickly that pressure shows up in the real economy.