This week former ABN AMRO chief economist and now independent commentator Han de Jong showed the US AI capex boom in Dutch export figures:
'Alleged AI bubble visible in our exports
The volume of Dutch goods exports was 7.1% higher in December than a year earlier. This isn't a unique percentage, but historically, and aside from the "echo" of the coronavirus pandemic, it is quite exceptional, as shown in the first graph. For 2025 as a whole, the growth in Dutch goods exports was 3.3%, much better than the 1.8% decline in 2024. This growth, and especially the 7.1% figure in December, is remarkable, given the geopolitical developments.
In response to the import tariffs announced by Donald Trump on April 2nd, "Liberation Day," the IMF lowered its forecast for world trade growth in 2025 from 3.25% to 1.7%. However, according to monthly figures from the CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis), global goods trade grew by a remarkable 4.4% up to and including November of last year. Such an IMF forecast is a major blunder. It also shows that while our exports performed very well in 2025, we are certainly not alone in this.
CBS reports that machinery made a significant contribution to the strong export growth in December. The following graph shows production trends in the mechanical engineering and chemical industries. As elsewhere in Europe, production in the chemical industry has declined sharply in recent years. In December, production was around 25-30% lower than before the European gas price surge in 2022. And just like in Germany, there's no sign of any recovery, even though the European gas price has fallen sharply in absolute terms compared to 2022. Policymakers show little urgency in halting or reversing this trend. The pursuit of strategic autonomy is apparently of little relevance here.
The graph also shows that production in mechanical engineering rose sharply from 2017 to 2023, then fell back, but picked up sharply again from mid-2025 onwards. Note that the axes in the graph differ in scale and that the growth in production in mechanical engineering is much stronger than the decline in the chemical industry. In December 2025, production volume in mechanical engineering was approximately three times higher than in January 2017. Production was also almost 7% higher than in June. This is therefore consistent with the export figures.
It is almost inevitable that the IT sector is the driving force here, and in particular everything related to artificial intelligence. ASML's excellent operating results for the last quarter of 2025, for example, and the company's positive expectations for the near future are consistent with this. Elsewhere in the world, you also see all sorts of signs of the strong and accelerating growth in investments in AI.'
There is significant variation in estimates on AI capex's contribution to GDP, ranging from substantial (Paul Kedrovsky et. al) to minimal (Goldman Sachs). Is the number for Computer equipment investment more settled, or is there also a wide potential band?
Great note EPB!
Glad you liked it!
This week former ABN AMRO chief economist and now independent commentator Han de Jong showed the US AI capex boom in Dutch export figures:
'Alleged AI bubble visible in our exports
The volume of Dutch goods exports was 7.1% higher in December than a year earlier. This isn't a unique percentage, but historically, and aside from the "echo" of the coronavirus pandemic, it is quite exceptional, as shown in the first graph. For 2025 as a whole, the growth in Dutch goods exports was 3.3%, much better than the 1.8% decline in 2024. This growth, and especially the 7.1% figure in December, is remarkable, given the geopolitical developments.
In response to the import tariffs announced by Donald Trump on April 2nd, "Liberation Day," the IMF lowered its forecast for world trade growth in 2025 from 3.25% to 1.7%. However, according to monthly figures from the CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis), global goods trade grew by a remarkable 4.4% up to and including November of last year. Such an IMF forecast is a major blunder. It also shows that while our exports performed very well in 2025, we are certainly not alone in this.
CBS reports that machinery made a significant contribution to the strong export growth in December. The following graph shows production trends in the mechanical engineering and chemical industries. As elsewhere in Europe, production in the chemical industry has declined sharply in recent years. In December, production was around 25-30% lower than before the European gas price surge in 2022. And just like in Germany, there's no sign of any recovery, even though the European gas price has fallen sharply in absolute terms compared to 2022. Policymakers show little urgency in halting or reversing this trend. The pursuit of strategic autonomy is apparently of little relevance here.
The graph also shows that production in mechanical engineering rose sharply from 2017 to 2023, then fell back, but picked up sharply again from mid-2025 onwards. Note that the axes in the graph differ in scale and that the growth in production in mechanical engineering is much stronger than the decline in the chemical industry. In December 2025, production volume in mechanical engineering was approximately three times higher than in January 2017. Production was also almost 7% higher than in June. This is therefore consistent with the export figures.
It is almost inevitable that the IT sector is the driving force here, and in particular everything related to artificial intelligence. ASML's excellent operating results for the last quarter of 2025, for example, and the company's positive expectations for the near future are consistent with this. Elsewhere in the world, you also see all sorts of signs of the strong and accelerating growth in investments in AI.'
https://crystalcleareconomics.nl/index.php/2026/02/17/vermeende-ai-bubbel-zichtbaar-in-onze-export/
There is significant variation in estimates on AI capex's contribution to GDP, ranging from substantial (Paul Kedrovsky et. al) to minimal (Goldman Sachs). Is the number for Computer equipment investment more settled, or is there also a wide potential band?
Not all computer equipment investment is directly related to AI, but it's the closest I can get, and the growth rate exploded exactly in 2023.