Stock prices are no longer a leading indicator. This post provides empirical evidence behind how the Cyclical Economy leads company earnings which leads stock prices.
Recent years have seen massive stimulus from government. If they keep running multi-trillion dollar deficits, it will be difficult for the stock market to fall. But it will be inflationary. Not something most households can tolerate much longer.
Superb!
Thank you so much for your articles, reread all of them.
I can't understand only one thing: how your framework relates to ISM, which is also called the business cycle?
Recent years have seen massive stimulus from government. If they keep running multi-trillion dollar deficits, it will be difficult for the stock market to fall. But it will be inflationary. Not something most households can tolerate much longer.